@Article{SantosCasSilQueSil:2017:PrSuDe,
               author = "Santos, Thalyta Soares dos and Castro, Aline Anderson de and 
                         Silva, Allan Rodrigues and Queiroz, Daniel {\'E}vora de and 
                         Silva, Thieres George Freire da",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco (UFRPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         Rural de Pernambuco (UFRPE)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio 
                         Grande do Norte (UFRN)} and {Universidade Federal Rural de 
                         Pernambuco (UFRPE)}",
                title = "Proje{\c{c}}{\~a}o da suscetibilidade a 
                         desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o em Pernambuco utilizando o modelo 
                         HADGEMES",
              journal = "Revista Brasileira de Geografia F{\'{\i}}sica",
                 year = "2017",
               volume = "10",
               number = "4",
                pages = "1170--1179",
             keywords = "CMIP5, {\'{\I}}ndice de Aridez, Semi{\'a}rido, CMIP5, Aridity 
                         Index, Semi-arid.",
             abstract = "A suscetibilidade da regi{\~a}o Nordeste do Brasil ao processo de 
                         desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o est{\'a} associada {\`a} 
                         variabilidade do clima e a fatores antropog{\^e}nicos. Nesse 
                         contexto, extremos clim{\'a}ticos intensos associados {\`a} 
                         degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o do solo podem levar {\`a} 
                         acelera{\c{c}}{\~a}o do processo de desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         no semi{\'a}rido. O objetivo do trabalho {\'e} avaliar processo 
                         de desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o no estado de Pernambuco e suas 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es para o s{\'e}culo XXI. O estudo foi 
                         realizado com dados mensais de simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e temperatura do Climatic Research Unit 
                         (CRU) e proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es do modelo HADGEM2-ES derivado do 
                         Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, utilizados 
                         no quinto relat{\'o}rio do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
                         Change - IPCC-AR5) no cen{\'a}rio RCP 8.5. Para analise, a 
                         evapotranspira{\c{c}}{\~a}o potencial foi calculada pelo 
                         m{\'e}todo de Thornthwaite, que serviu para o c{\'a}lculo do 
                         {\'{\i}}ndice de aridez. O {\'{\i}}ndice de aridez {\'e} 
                         bastante utilizado nos estudos para a determina{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         {\'a}reas secas e principalmente nos estudos do processo de 
                         desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Os resultados indicaram que, 
                         considerando a variabilidade do clim{\'a}tica atual e futura no 
                         Nordeste do Brasil, associada a a{\c{c}}{\~o}es antr{\'o}picas, 
                         o estado de Pernambuco tem uma alta suscetibilidade a 
                         desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o. ABSTRACT: The Brazilian Northeast 
                         region susceptibility to desertification process is associated 
                         with climate variability and anthropogenic factors. Intense 
                         climatic extremes associated with soil degradation may accelerate 
                         the desertification process in the semiarid region. The main 
                         objective of this study is to evaluate the desertification process 
                         in Pernambuco state and its projections for the 21st century. The 
                         study was carried out with monthly precipitation and temperature 
                         datasets from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and HADGEM2-ES 
                         projections, derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison 
                         Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, used in the fifth report of the 
                         Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC -AR5) in the RCP 
                         8.5 scenario. The potential evapotranspiration was calculated by 
                         the Thornthwaite method, which was used to calculate the aridity 
                         index. The aridity index is widely used in to determine dry areas, 
                         especially in desertification process studies. The results shows 
                         that, considering the current and future climate variability in 
                         Brazilian Northeast, associated with anthropic actions, Pernambuco 
                         has a high susceptibility to desertification.",
                 issn = "1984-2295",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "santos_projecao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}